According to the Bundesbank, the recovery of the German economy from the negative consequences of the coronavirus pandemic can be achieved by this autumn, if vaccination is accelerated, which will allow lifting quarantine restrictions.
A significant easing of the restrictions still in place in the country, according to the German central bank, is the main condition for accelerating the economic recovery in the third quarter to a level that will surpass pre-crisis GDP growth in the fall. For this to happen, significant progress must be made in vaccinating the population.
The Bundesbank expects that by the end of the second quarter of this year, industrial production will significantly increase and construction volumes will significantly expand, and in the next quarter, we should expect a strong recovery in the service sector.
At the same time, experts of the Bundesbank believe that the reduction in the value-added tax may increase inflation to 4% by the end of the year, which will not be observed for long.