The results of a survey of 33 economists, conducted by the Financial Times, showed that in 2021 the eurozone GDP growth rate may be the highest in more than 20 years.
Economists forecast economic growth for next year at 4.3%. The implementation of this forecast is possible only on the condition of a safe exit of European countries from the coronavirus pandemic due to mass vaccination. A significant improvement in the epidemiological situation will significantly increase the demand for most services, which dropped sharply during the period of quarantine measures.
At the same time, many economists believe that the damage from the pandemic will continue to be felt next year. Over 50% of survey participants believe that unemployment may exceed 10%. The results of the October poll indicated an increase in unemployment to only 8.4%.
The recovery of the eurozone economy to the indicators recorded before the crisis caused by the pandemic, no earlier than in the summer months of 2022, is considered possible by 75% of respondents. At the same time, a number of economists said that this could only happen in 2023. The survey participants do not exclude the second wave of recession in the eurozone this winter due to the new lockdowns and restrictions.
At the same time, the majority of respondents said that GDP growth will begin in the second half of next year thanks to vaccinations and financial support from the EU recovery fund.